Excellent analysis. Thank you so much for making this sheet. You are correct in general but have neglected the tax benefit.
Take the MF value of 16344780 and deduct 12.5% tax and it becomes 14301683. Now, we are much closer to the ULIP. In addition, the tax rate is very likely to rise to 15 or even 20%. So, your calculation underscores my initial analysis. A MF is slightly better than a ULIP but the ULIP, if held to maturity, isn't as bad as most people make it seem.
in general MFs returns are higher than the ULIP returns..
What I have observed in long term, ULIPs funds returns dont beat after tax returns of the MFs.
ULIPs returns don't have very high alpha.
One midcap example I have already given earlier.
This is another example of Bluechip fund which is specifically largecap fund:
Here is snapshot of HDFC ULIP provided fund:
Whereas some of the good consistent performers in largecap space has given 10 years returns around 14%. If i remove 12.5% tax as well then return comes as 12.25% which is higher than ULIP return of 11.8%.
You can refer to my earlier analysis where we both agreed that MFs post tax returns are going to be equivalent to the ULIP return but I havent seen MFs post tax returns are less than any comparable ULIP fund.
Also while calculating tax you forgot to deduct initial investment of 20L as tax is on capital gain not on whole corpus.
So overall is :
- I have included all the goodness of ULIP like return of mortality/insurance/fund management charges etc. while calculated the return of ULIP.
- I haven't included 1.25L tax harvesting which you can do using MFs in MFs returns. 3rd Year onwards you will be able to save tax on 1.25L every year which also I haven't considered positive for MFs returns. This result into around 22L without tax gain.
- I haven't included higher returns which smallcap can provide if MFs portfolio is properly created whereas HDFC ULIP doesnt provide any fund for Smallcap exposure.
So even after giving all the advantages to ULIP like equal return as post-tax return of MFs (which is not usually the case as in long term MFs post tax returns beat the ULIP returns easily), not counting tax harvesting, etc, ULIP return can't beat MFs return.
And the case of increasing capital gain tax thats in future and you never know govt may start imposing the tax on ULIPs as well.
So we should do analysis as per current scenario not as per future speculations.
😉 😉
So again choosing ULIP or not choosing is personal preference but overall analysis certainly denotes that ULIPs are always inferior than an average return MFs portfolio.
Your further inputs will certainly help me refine my understanding further. So always open to learn more about investment options like ULIPs, etc. You never know you will find a gem in these discussions.
